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安徽网05月25日电:粉嫩小仙女爆乳白浆视频_「必看」嗜你成瘾1v3(勾缠1v2全文)(今天更新)随州新闻网)...☼「ちょっと、段階的には早いかなって思ったけど……。我慢できそうにないや」qm3i4ty5-dkisn813wt1-mvlwyfef

　　#####　(　)　(　)与(yu)此(ci)同(tong)时(shi)，(，)不(bu)断(duan)持(chi)续(xu)的(de)拉(la)尼(ni)娜(na)现(xian)象(xiang)影(ying)响(xiang)了(le)东(dong)亚(ya)夏(xia)季(ji)风(feng)的(de)建(jian)立(li)和(he)中(zhong)国(guo)的(de)雨(yu)季(ji)进(jin)程(cheng)，(，)导(dao)致(zhi)南(nan)海(hai)夏(xia)季(ji)风(feng)爆(bao)发(fa)偏(pian)早(zao)，(，)华(hua)南(nan)前(qian)汛(xun)期(qi)和(he)西(xi)南(nan)雨(yu)季(ji)开(kai)始(shi)时(shi)间(jian)偏(pian)早(zao)，(，)江(jiang)南(nan)和(he)长(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游(you)入(ru)梅(mei)也(ye)偏(pian)早(zao)，(，)因(yin)此(ci)导(dao)致(zhi)副(fu)高(gao)位(wei)置(zhi)更(geng)容(rong)易(yi)偏(pian)北(bei)，(，)这(zhe)意(yi)味(wei)着(zhe)副(fu)高(gao)将(jiang)更(geng)大(da)范(fan)围(wei)地(di)覆(fu)盖(gai)、(、)停(ting)留(liu)在(zai)长(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游(you)区(qu)域(yu)。(。)

　<(<)p(p)>(>)炒(chao)股(gu)就(jiu)看(kan)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)“(“)几(ji)乎(hu)世(shi)界(jie)各(ge)地(di)的(de)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)经(jing)济(ji)的(de)快(kuai)速(su)复(fu)苏(su)为(wei)中(zhong)国(guo)权(quan)益(yi)资(zi)产(chan)的(de)表(biao)现(xian)奠(dian)定(ding)了(le)基(ji)础(chu)。(。)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)“(“)从(cong)长(chang)期(qi)战(zhan)略(lve)角(jiao)度(du)来(lai)看(kan)，(，)我(wo)们(men)建(jian)议(yi)高(gao)配(pei)中(zhong)国(guo)股(gu)票(piao)。(。)”(”)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)表(biao)示(shi)。(。)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)他(ta)分(fen)析(xi)，(，)几(ji)乎(hu)世(shi)界(jie)各(ge)地(di)的(de)g(g)d(d)p(p)增(zeng)长(chang)都(dou)在(zai)放(fang)缓(huan)，(，)特(te)别(bie)是(shi)美(mei)国(guo)和(he)欧(ou)洲(zhou)，(，)但(dan)在(zai)去(qu)年(nian)的(de)低(di)基(ji)数(shu)上(shang)，(，)中(zhong)国(guo)正(zheng)在(zai)恢(hui)复(fu)g(g)d(d)p(p)增(zeng)长(chang)，(，)而(er)且(qie)增(zeng)长(chang)仍(reng)然(ran)相(xiang)当(dang)强(qiang)劲(jin)。(。)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)与(yu)此(ci)同(tong)时(shi)，(，)中(zhong)国(guo)市(shi)场(chang)政(zheng)策(ce)层(ceng)面(mian)对(dui)于(yu)增(zeng)长(chang)的(de)支(zhi)持(chi)力(li)度(du)仍(reng)然(ran)是(shi)显(xian)著(zhu)的(de)。(。)“(“)各(ge)种(zhong)现(xian)象(xiang)都(dou)表(biao)明(ming)政(zheng)府(fu)把(ba)增(zeng)长(chang)作(zuo)为(wei)核(he)心(xin)政(zheng)策(ce)方(fang)向(xiang)之(zhi)一(yi)来(lai)关(guan)注(zhu)。(。)”(”)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)表(biao)示(shi)，(，)“(“)例(li)如(ru)，(，)房(fang)地(di)产(chan)市(shi)场(chang)的(de)政(zheng)策(ce)一(yi)直(zhi)在(zai)改(gai)善(shan)，(，)对(dui)互(hu)联(lian)网(wang)平(ping)台(tai)公(gong)司(si)的(de)监(jian)管(guan)也(ye)在(zai)放(fang)松(song)。(。)监(jian)管(guan)对(dui)平(ping)台(tai)公(gong)司(si)正(zheng)在(zai)采(cai)取(qu)更(geng)有(you)建(jian)设(she)性(xing)的(de)态(tai)度(du)，(，)并(bing)认(ren)识(shi)到(dao)他(ta)们(men)是(shi)整(zheng)个(ge)经(jing)济(ji)的(de)关(guan)键(jian)组(zu)成(cheng)部(bu)分(fen)之(zhi)一(yi)。(。)”(”)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)此(ci)外(wai)，(，)中(zhong)国(guo)股(gu)市(shi)与(yu)美(mei)国(guo)股(gu)市(shi)的(de)相(xiang)关(guan)性(xing)较(jiao)低(di)。(。)“(“)基(ji)于(yu)对(dui)美(mei)国(guo)整(zheng)体(ti)经(jing)济(ji)的(de)担(dan)忧(you)，(，)对(dui)债(zhai)务(wu)上(shang)限(xian)谈(tan)判(pan)的(de)担(dan)忧(you)，(，)以(yi)及(ji)对(dui)市(shi)场(chang)估(gu)值(zhi)和(he)盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)长(chang)不(bu)匹(pi)配(pei)的(de)担(dan)忧(you)，(，)我(wo)们(men)认(ren)为(wei)美(mei)国(guo)股(gu)市(shi)可(ke)能(neng)在(zai)今(jin)年(nian)夏(xia)季(ji)会(hui)出(chu)现(xian)调(tiao)整(zheng)。(。)如(ru)果(guo)担(dan)心(xin)美(mei)国(guo)股(gu)市(shi)的(de)潜(qian)在(zai)调(tiao)整(zheng)，(，)那(na)么(me)中(zhong)国(guo)a(a)股(gu)是(shi)非(fei)常(chang)好(hao)的(de)对(dui)冲(chong)配(pei)置(zhi)。(。)因(yin)此(ci)我(wo)们(men)战(zhan)略(lve)上(shang)看(kan)好(hao)a(a)股(gu)。(。)”(”)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)特(te)别(bie)提(ti)及(ji)了(le)全(quan)球(qiu)不(bu)同(tong)类(lei)型(xing)投(tou)资(zi)基(ji)金(jin)对(dui)中(zhong)国(guo)资(zi)产(chan)的(de)配(pei)置(zhi)。(。)他(ta)表(biao)示(shi)，(，)对(dui)冲(chong)基(ji)金(jin)往(wang)往(wang)更(geng)关(guan)注(zhu)短(duan)期(qi)市(shi)场(chang)变(bian)化(hua)。(。)从(cong)去(qu)年(nian)四(si)季(ji)度(du)到(dao)2(2)0(0)2(2)3(3)年(nian)1(1)月(yue)，(，)对(dui)冲(chong)基(ji)金(jin)对(dui)中(zhong)国(guo)的(de)投(tou)资(zi)出(chu)现(xian)过(guo)一(yi)拨(bo)迅(xun)速(su)和(he)明(ming)显(xian)的(de)改(gai)善(shan)，(，)峰(feng)值(zhi)达(da)到(dao)自(zi)身(shen)历(li)史(shi)分(fen)位(wei)的(de)9(9)1(1)%(%)。(。)而(er)目(mu)前(qian)这(zhe)一(yi)数(shu)值(zhi)回(hui)落(luo)至(zhi)大(da)约(yue)5(5)6(6)%(%)。(。)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)“(“)对(dui)冲(chong)基(ji)金(jin)承(cheng)担(dan)风(feng)险(xian)的(de)意(yi)愿(yuan)更(geng)高(gao)，(，)但(dan)获(huo)利(li)了(le)结(jie)的(de)速(su)度(du)也(ye)更(geng)快(kuai)。(。)这(zhe)意(yi)味(wei)着(zhe)，(，)如(ru)果(guo)投(tou)资(zi)者(zhe)对(dui)盈(ying)利(li)潜(qian)力(li)的(de)信(xin)心(xin)增(zeng)强(qiang)，(，)对(dui)冲(chong)基(ji)金(jin)仍(reng)有(you)多(duo)余(yu)的(de)现(xian)金(jin)布(bu)局(ju)，(，)快(kuai)速(su)重(zhong)新(xin)评(ping)估(gu)风(feng)险(xian)。(。)”(”)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)另(ling)一(yi)方(fang)面(mian)，(，)关(guan)注(zhu)更(geng)长(chang)市(shi)场(chang)周(zhou)期(qi)的(de)共(gong)同(tong)基(ji)金(jin)目(mu)前(qian)对(dui)于(yu)中(zhong)国(guo)的(de)投(tou)资(zi)相(xiang)对(dui)更(geng)保(bao)守(shou)，(，)配(pei)置(zhi)水(shui)平(ping)大(da)约(yue)位(wei)于(yu)历(li)史(shi)的(de)2(2)3(3)%(%)分(fen)位(wei)。(。)在(zai)共(gong)同(tong)基(ji)金(jin)内(nei)部(bu)，(，)新(xin)兴(xing)市(shi)场(chang)基(ji)金(jin)对(dui)中(zhong)国(guo)的(de)配(pei)置(zhi)大(da)概(gai)处(chu)在(zai)历(li)史(shi)分(fen)位(wei)的(de)7(7)0(0)%(%)左(zuo)右(you)；(；)而(er)以(yi)美(mei)国(guo)为(wei)代(dai)表(biao)的(de)全(quan)球(qiu)基(ji)金(jin)对(dui)中(zhong)国(guo)的(de)风(feng)险(xian)敞(chang)口(kou)处(chu)在(zai)历(li)史(shi)分(fen)位(wei)的(de)8(8)%(%)。(。)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)在(zai)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)看(kan)来(lai)，(，)如(ru)果(guo)信(xin)心(xin)水(shui)平(ping)提(ti)高(gao)，(，)海(hai)外(wai)基(ji)金(jin)对(dui)中(zhong)国(guo)股(gu)票(piao)的(de)持(chi)仓(cang)还(hai)有(you)很(hen)大(da)的(de)提(ti)升(sheng)空(kong)间(jian)：(：)“(“)如(ru)果(guo)中(zhong)国(guo)的(de)股(gu)票(piao)能(neng)够(gou)恢(hui)复(fu)势(shi)头(tou)，(，)开(kai)始(shi)在(zai)价(jia)格(ge)上(shang)有(you)所(suo)表(biao)现(xian)，(，)全(quan)球(qiu)范(fan)围(wei)内(nei)都(dou)有(you)观(guan)望(wang)资(zi)金(jin)来(lai)为(wei)市(shi)场(chang)添(tian)加(jia)‘(‘)燃(ran)料(liao)’(’)。(。)当(dang)然(ran)前(qian)提(ti)是(shi)，(，)我(wo)们(men)必(bi)须(xu)看(kan)到(dao)基(ji)本(ben)面(mian)的(de)稳(wen)定(ding)和(he)改(gai)善(shan)。(。)”(”)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)对(dui)于(yu)亚(ya)太(tai)地(di)区(qu)的(de)整(zheng)体(ti)表(biao)现(xian)，(，)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)分(fen)享(xiang)了(le)三(san)个(ge)主(zhu)要(yao)观(guan)点(dian)。(。)首(shou)先(xian)，(，)继(ji)2(2)0(0)2(2)2(2)年(nian)疲(pi)软(ruan)表(biao)现(xian)后(hou)，(，)亚(ya)太(tai)地(di)区(qu)的(de)盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)长(chang)在(zai)2(2)0(0)2(2)3(3)年(nian)开(kai)始(shi)恢(hui)复(fu)，(，)并(bing)且(qie)这(zhe)一(yi)复(fu)苏(su)趋(qu)势(shi)在(zai)2(2)0(0)2(2)4(4)年(nian)有(you)望(wang)更(geng)加(jia)明(ming)显(xian)。(。)就(jiu)整(zheng)个(ge)地(di)区(qu)而(er)言(yan)，(，)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)“(“)当(dang)然(ran)不(bu)同(tong)市(shi)场(chang)内(nei)部(bu)的(de)复(fu)苏(su)差(cha)异(yi)同(tong)样(yang)显(xian)著(zhu)。(。)我(wo)们(men)认(ren)为(wei)，(，)中(zhong)国(guo)今(jin)年(nian)将(jiang)有(you)最(zui)好(hao)的(de)盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)长(chang)表(biao)现(xian)，(，)预(yu)计(ji)2(2)0(0)2(2)3(3)年(nian)中(zhong)国(guo)的(de)每(mei)股(gu)盈(ying)余(yu)（(（)e(e)p(p)s(s)）(）)增(zeng)长(chang)约(yue)为(wei)1(1)7(7)%(%)。(。)但(dan)北(bei)亚(ya)，(，)特(te)别(bie)是(shi)韩(han)国(guo)等(deng)地(di)区(qu)将(jiang)出(chu)现(xian)显(xian)著(zhu)的(de)盈(ying)利(li)负(fu)增(zeng)长(chang)，(，)这(zhe)主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)源(yuan)自(zi)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)但(dan)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)提(ti)示(shi)，(，)在(zai)2(2)0(0)2(2)4(4)年(nian)走(zou)出(chu)周(zhou)期(qi)底(di)部(bu)后(hou)，(，)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)其(qi)次(ci)，(，)就(jiu)估(gu)值(zhi)而(er)言(yan)，(，)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)认(ren)为(wei)，(，)亚(ya)太(tai)地(di)区(qu)整(zheng)体(ti)估(gu)值(zhi)大(da)致(zhi)处(chu)于(yu)合(he)理(li)区(qu)间(jian)。(。)“(“)我(wo)们(men)认(ren)为(wei)中(zhong)国(guo)现(xian)在(zai)被(bei)低(di)估(gu)了(le)，(，)但(dan)就(jiu)整(zheng)个(ge)地(di)区(qu)而(er)言(yan)，(，)亚(ya)太(tai)市(shi)场(chang)的(de)估(gu)值(zhi)基(ji)本(ben)合(he)理(li)。(。)”(”)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)“(“)这(zhe)意(yi)味(wei)着(zhe)估(gu)值(zhi)不(bu)会(hui)有(you)太(tai)大(da)的(de)变(bian)化(hua)，(，)真(zhen)正(zheng)成(cheng)为(wei)股(gu)票(piao)价(jia)格(ge)关(guan)键(jian)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)同(tong)时(shi)，(，)从(cong)外(wai)资(zi)流(liu)向(xiang)来(lai)看(kan)，(，)高(gao)盛(sheng)的(de)统(tong)计(ji)数(shu)据(ju)显(xian)示(shi)，(，)自(zi)2(2)0(0)2(2)0(0)年(nian)初(chu)疫(yi)情(qing)发(fa)生(sheng)以(yi)来(lai)至(zhi)最(zui)近(jin)的(de)阶(jie)段(duan)低(di)点(dian)，(，)外(wai)资(zi)在(zai)亚(ya)洲(zhou)除(chu)中(zhong)国(guo)外(wai)的(de)新(xin)兴(xing)市(shi)场(chang)地(di)区(qu)总(zong)共(gong)净(jing)卖(mai)出(chu)了(le)约(yue)1(1)1(1)4(4)0(0)亿(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)；(；)而(er)从(cong)低(di)点(dian)至(zhi)今(jin)，(，)外(wai)资(zi)大(da)约(yue)回(hui)流(liu)了(le)2(2)2(2)0(0)亿(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，(，)这(zhe)意(yi)味(wei)只(zhi)有(you)大(da)约(yue)2(2)0(0)%(%)的(de)资(zi)金(jin)出(chu)现(xian)回(hui)流(liu)。(。)“(“)该(gai)地(di)区(qu)的(de)整(zheng)体(ti)投(tou)资(zi)者(zhe)仓(cang)位(wei)仍(reng)然(ran)相(xiang)当(dang)保(bao)守(shou)，(，)这(zhe)是(shi)我(wo)们(men)对(dui)整(zheng)体(ti)市(shi)场(chang)持(chi)积(ji)极(ji)看(kan)法(fa)的(de)额(e)外(wai)原(yuan)因(yin)之(zhi)一(yi)：(：)不(bu)仅(jin)盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)长(chang)强(qiang)劲(jin)，(，)估(gu)值(zhi)合(he)理(li)，(，)而(er)且(qie)投(tou)资(zi)者(zhe)对(dui)其(qi)的(de)风(feng)险(xian)偏(pian)好(hao)有(you)较(jiao)大(da)的(de)增(zeng)长(chang)空(kong)间(jian)。(。)我(wo)们(men)预(yu)计(ji)未(wei)来(lai)应(ying)该(gai)会(hui)有(you)更(geng)多(duo)积(ji)极(ji)的(de)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)在(zai)对(dui)a(a)股(gu)市(shi)场(chang)的(de)整(zheng)体(ti)看(kan)好(hao)下(xia)，(，)哪(na)些(xie)行(xing)业(ye)值(zhi)得(de)配(pei)置(zhi)？(？)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)提(ti)及(ji)上(shang)市(shi)国(guo)有(you)企(qi)业(ye)的(de)投(tou)资(zi)机(ji)遇(yu)：(：)“(“)国(guo)有(you)企(qi)业(ye)目(mu)前(qian)的(de)表(biao)现(xian)优(you)于(yu)私(si)有(you)企(qi)业(ye)，(，)这(zhe)在(zai)全(quan)球(qiu)投(tou)资(zi)者(zhe)中(zhong)都(dou)具(ju)有(you)很(hen)大(da)的(de)吸(xi)引(yin)力(li)。(。)我(wo)们(men)认(ren)为(wei)，(，)在(zai)国(guo)有(you)企(qi)业(ye)领(ling)域(yu)有(you)很(hen)多(duo)机(ji)会(hui)，(，)因(yin)为(wei)许(xu)多(duo)国(guo)有(you)企(qi)业(ye)的(de)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)高(gao)盛(sheng)研(yan)究(jiu)团(tuan)队(dui)此(ci)前(qian)在(zai)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)此(ci)外(wai)，(，)“(“)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)高(gao)盛(sheng)表(biao)示(shi)，(，)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)“(“)考(kao)虑(lv)到(dao)全(quan)球(qiu)经(jing)济(ji)状(zhuang)况(kuang)和(he)不(bu)同(tong)资(zi)产(chan)的(de)估(gu)值(zhi)，(，)我(wo)们(men)在(zai)短(duan)期(qi)内(nei)对(dui)全(quan)球(qiu)资(zi)产(chan)市(shi)场(chang)普(pu)遍(bian)持(chi)中(zhong)立(li)到(dao)略(lve)微(wei)谨(jin)慎(shen)的(de)态(tai)度(du)。(。)”(”)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)表(biao)示(shi)。(。)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)高(gao)盛(sheng)的(de)主(zhu)要(yao)观(guan)点(dian)是(shi)，(，)短(duan)期(qi)内(nei)看(kan)好(hao)现(xian)金(jin)以(yi)及(ji)大(da)宗(zong)商(shang)品(pin)。(。)“(“)因(yin)为(wei)我(wo)们(men)认(ren)为(wei)，(，)许(xu)多(duo)大(da)宗(zong)商(shang)品(pin)包(bao)括(kuo)石(shi)油(you)和(he)非(fei)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)不(bu)过(guo)从(cong)宏(hong)观(guan)经(jing)济(ji)来(lai)看(kan)，(，)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)提(ti)及(ji)高(gao)盛(sheng)对(dui)美(mei)国(guo)经(jing)济(ji)的(de)预(yu)期(qi)较(jiao)市(shi)场(chang)共(gong)识(shi)更(geng)为(wei)乐(le)观(guan)：(：)该(gai)机(ji)构(gou)预(yu)计(ji)美(mei)国(guo)经(jing)济(ji)今(jin)年(nian)衰(shuai)退(tui)的(de)概(gai)率(lv)大(da)约(yue)为(wei)3(3)5(5)%(%)，(，)而(er)市(shi)场(chang)共(gong)识(shi)是(shi)6(6)0(0)%(%)左(zuo)右(you)。(。)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)“(“)我(wo)们(men)对(dui)经(jing)济(ji)的(de)看(kan)法(fa)比(bi)共(gong)识(shi)更(geng)积(ji)极(ji)的(de)关(guan)键(jian)原(yuan)因(yin)是(shi)，(，)劳(lao)动(dong)力(li)市(shi)场(chang)仍(reng)然(ran)相(xiang)当(dang)强(qiang)劲(jin)。(。)我(wo)们(men)认(ren)为(wei)，(，)劳(lao)动(dong)力(li)市(shi)场(chang)的(de)调(tiao)整(zheng)可(ke)以(yi)在(zai)失(shi)业(ye)率(lv)没(mei)有(you)太(tai)大(da)上(shang)升(sheng)的(de)情(qing)况(kuang)下(xia)实(shi)现(xian)。(。)”(”)慕(mu)天(tian)辉(hui)表(biao)示(shi)。(。)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)劳(lao)动(dong)力(li)市(shi)场(chang)的(de)强(qiang)劲(jin)表(biao)现(xian)也(ye)直(zhi)接(jie)影(ying)响(xiang)到(dao)了(le)高(gao)盛(sheng)对(dui)于(yu)美(mei)联(lian)储(chu)加(jia)息(xi)路(lu)径(jing)的(de)预(yu)测(ce)。(。)“(“)美(mei)联(lian)储(chu)刚(gang)刚(gang)在(zai)5(5)月(yue)f(f)o(o)m(m)c(c)会(hui)议(yi)上(shang)将(jiang)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)但(dan)与(yu)市(shi)场(chang)预(yu)期(qi)不(bu)同(tong)的(de)是(shi)，(，)市(shi)场(chang)预(yu)计(ji)美(mei)联(lian)储(chu)在(zai)明(ming)年(nian)1(1)月(yue)之(zhi)前(qian)会(hui)降(jiang)息(xi)4(4)次(ci)。(。)而(er)高(gao)盛(sheng)认(ren)为(wei)美(mei)联(lian)储(chu)将(jiang)按(an)兵(bing)不(bu)动(dong)，(，)直(zhi)到(dao)2(2)0(0)2(2)4(4)年(nian)第(di)二(er)季(ji)度(du)。(。)原(yuan)因(yin)在(zai)于(yu)美(mei)联(lian)储(chu)需(xu)要(yao)更(geng)多(duo)的(de)时(shi)间(jian)确(que)保(bao)通(tong)胀(zhang)水(shui)平(ping)下(xia)行(xing)。(。)“(“)这(zhe)一(yi)判(pan)断(duan)的(de)依(yi)据(ju)仍(reng)是(shi)我(wo)们(men)认(ren)为(wei)美(mei)国(guo)经(jing)济(ji)仍(reng)将(jiang)比(bi)一(yi)致(zhi)预(yu)期(qi)更(geng)强(qiang)。(。)”(”)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)<(<)p(p)>(>)责(ze)任(ren)编(bian)辑(ji)：(：)石(shi)秀(xiu)珍(zhen)s(s)f(f)1(1)8(8)3(3)<(<)/(/)p(p)>(>)

zuozhe：xuchunhua（hebeidaxuezhexueyushehuixuexueyuanxueshuweiyuanhuizhuren、jifuzhexueyanjiuzhongxinzhuren）

zaixianqinruxuechuanshiwenxianyuchutuwenxianzhong，cunzaizhedaliangdeyinshixushi。anzhaoxianqinruxuedeyanbianshunxu，tamencunzaizheyizhongdijinshangshengdequshi，qizhong《lunyu》yinshi5tiao，jianbowenxian《wuxing》yinshi6tiao、《ziyi》yinshi23tiao，zhi《mengzi》yinshi37tiao，《xunzi》yinshiduoda83tiao。congxingshishangkan，zhexieyinshixushibingfeidulicunzaidejingdianwenxianxingtai，ershirongruxianqinruxuedechuanshiwenxianyuchutuwenxianzhizhong；congyilishangkan，tamenbushiyichuncuigainiandefangshichengxianyili，ershitongguoyinyongshiwenzhankaihetuilunruxueguannian。

congmuqiandezhexueshiyujingxueshiyanjiulaikan，zhexieyinshixushihuoyinqiyilifangshibugou“chuncui”，huoyinqiwenxianxingtaibugou“jingdian”，wangwangbeiyidaierguo，shenzhibeihushinaizhiyiwangqisixiangjiazhi。ranerzhexieyinshixushi，bingbushixianqinruxuezhuzisuiyierweide，bushikeyoukewude。yinshixushifashengyujianboshuxiecailiaofeichangguizhongqiezhanjuzhutidexianqinshiqi，xianqinruxuezhuzizaiqisixiangshijiezhong，rucipinfandi、daliangdiyinyongshiwen，ruoshuotamensuiyierwei，shibunenglingrenxinfude。name，jiexialaidewentishi，yinshixushidedaliangchuxian，ruheyingxiangzhexianqinruxuedesixiangshijie？yujingdian“ruxuehua”heruxue“jingdianhua”jinchengyouheguanxi？zaixianqinruxuedexuepaiyishi、siweijincheng、shengchengfangshizhongyouhezuoyong？tongguoduizhexiewentidetantao，helipanding“shi”zaixianqinruxuezhongdediweiyuzuoyong，youzhuyutuijinduixianqinruxuejingdianxushiyuhuayutixideyanjiu。

xianqinzhuzichuanglishiqi，ruxuezhishiqizhongzhiyi，ruhequelihezhichengruxuedexuepaidiwei，chengweixianqinruxueyouqishikongzizhihouruxuezhuzizhezhongkaolvdewenti。congzhourende“wangguanzhixue”zhongxunqiuruxuexuepaidejingdianzhicheng，chengweixianqinruxuezhuzideshouxuan。

zaizhourende“wangguanzhixue”zhong，“shi”yu“shu”“li”“le”tongyang，douhuodele“wenmingdejingdian”diwei，chengweizhourenzhengzhihuodongyuhuayutixidezhongyaozuchengbufen。suizhechunqiushidaizhongwanqi“lihuailebeng”dejiaju，“shi”dediweibujinmeiyouxiajiang，fanerchengxianzhubushangshengdequshi，cong《zuochuan》xianggong、zhaogongnianjianyinshifushihuodongzuiweipinfankejianyiban。yu“li”“le”qiwuxingtaixiangbi，“shi”shiyizhongwenbenxingtai，qitedianshijianduanfangbian、hezheyayun、yiyunwuqiong，bianyujiaoshouhejiyi，gengyiyudazhonghuadechuanboyujieshou。“shi”yu“shu”suirandoushiwenbenxingtai，danxiangbieryan，“shu”deyuyangengweichouxianghuise，“gao”“xun”“shi”denghuayufangshigengqingxiangyugangxinghekongzhideliliangxingtai，er“shi”zeyizhenqingshigan、wenwenerya、weiwanhanxudehuayufangshichengxian，gengzhuzhong“shenmeide”“rouxingde”liliangxingtai。

zaixianqinruxuezhongchuxiandaliangyinshixushi，haiyouqixuelishangdeyiju。shouxian，xianqinruxuequelizishendexuepaidiwei，xuyao“shi”zhezhongjingdianliliangdezhicheng。jinguanqitaxianqinzhuzijixuepaiyecunzaiyinshixianxiang，danrujiayinshiwenxianshuliangzuiduoqiechengxiandijinshangshengqushi，zheyuxianqinshiqizhuzifengqi、baijiazhengmingdefazhantaishishitongbude，zheshuoming“shi”yijingchengweixianqinruxueweihuxuepaidiwei、qudesixianghuayuquandeyizhongzhongyaolujing。zhizhanguowanqidexunzishidai，yinshixushibujinshixunzipipingqitafeirujiaxuepaidejingdianyiju，haichengweipipingruxueneibugezhongxuepai、weixiruxuezhengtongdejingdianliliang。qici，xianqinruxuezaisixiangchuangzaoguochengzhong，yexuyao“shi”zhezhongjingdianliliangdezhicheng。yinshixushiyuxianqinruxueqitaxushifangshibutong，shitongguoyinyongshiwendemoupianmouzhangmoujiju，jifashiwenzhongdewentiyishi，chanfashiwendeyiyishijie，shiwenyeyoucirongruxianqinruxuedesixiangshijie；shiwenbuzaishizhourendezhengzhihuayu，yinshiyebuzaishizhourendezhengzhihuodong，ershizhuanhuanweixianqinruxuedesixianghuayuhesixianghuodong，“shi”youzhouren“wenmingdejingdian”zhuanhuanweixianqinruxue“sixiangdejingdian”，ciji“shi”zhezhongjingdian“ruxuehua”dejinlu。zuihou，yinshixushiyetuidonglexianqinruxue“jingdianhua”dejincheng。zaixianqinruxueshixuechuantongzhong，“shi”bujinhuodele“ren”debenzhiguiding，erqieyinshixushichufalejihuxianqinruxuesuoyoudezhongyaoguannian，《lunyu》zhong“shi”yu“li”、“shi”yu“le”、“shi”yu“dao”、“shi”yu“xiao”deng，kongmenhouxuejianbowenxianzhong“shi”yu“shendu”、“shi”yu“jundao”deng，《mengzi》zhong“shi”yu“ren”、“shi”yu“xiao”、“shi”yu“renzheng”、“shi”yu“renyi”、“shi”yu“minben”deng，《xunzi》zhong“shi”yu“dao”、“shi”yu“ru”、“shi”yu“junzi”deng。yinshixushichengweixianqinruxuezheyisixiangxuepaidejingdianguidingxing，chengweizhichengxianqinruxuecunxuhechuanchengdejingdianliliang，“shi”quelilexianqinruxueyuzhongbutongdezhexuepinwei。

zongguanxianqinruxuedeyinshixushi，congyinshifangshishangdazhikeyifenweisizhong，diyizhongshiyi“shiyun（yue）”kaitoudefangshi，zhezhongyinshifangshizai《lunyu》《guodianchumuzhujian·ziyi》《mengzi》zhongjiaoweipubian。dierzhongshiyi“shiyue（yun）”kaitou，yi“cizhiweiye”jieweidefangshi，zhezhongfangshizai《xunzi》zhongbijiaoliuxing。disanzhongshiyinshizhijierongrudefangshi，《guodianchumuzhujian·wuxing》zhongyou2tiaocaiquzhezhongyinshifangshi，“‘shurenjunzi，qiyiyiye。’nengweiyi，ranhounengweijunzi，shenqiduye”“‘zhanwangfuji，qitiruyu。’nengchachiqiyu，ranhounengzhiai，junzishenqiduye”。disizhongshiyi“cizhiweiye”jieweidefangshi，《guodianchumuzhujian·wuxing》zhongyou3tiaocaiquzhezhongyinshifangshi。disanzhongkeyishuoshiyizhongyinxingde“shiyun（yue）”yinshifangshi，disizhongzeshiyizhongbianxiangde“shiyue（yun）”kaitou，“cizhiweiye”jieweideyinshifangshi。suoyi，xianqinruxuedeliangzhongzhuyaoyinshifangshi，kefenbieyi《mengzi》yu《xunzi》weidaibiao。

yinshixushizhongbutongdeyinshifangshi，yetixianchubutongshiqirujiaxuezhebutongdesiweijinchenghebutongdesixiangfengge。《mengzi》yinshi37tiao，qizhongjuedabufencaiquyizhongshiyifangshi，zhezhongyinshifangshishimengziyinshixushidesiweijinchengyouliangzhongdutedehuayubiaoshi。yizhonghuayubiaoshishiyinyongshiwenzhihou，chuxianle“gu”“wei”huoyucixiangjinde“lianjieci”，baokuo“shiyi”“suoyi”“zhiwei”“kongziyue”“gaiyue”deng，zhezhonglianjiecizaiyinshixushisiweijinchengzhongdezuoyongshishuangzhongde，congshiwenxiangshiyilaishuo，lianjiecishishiwenbuzaiyouyushiwenyuanyi，ershikaixianlegengduokenengdeyiyixiangdu；congshiyiduishiwenlaishuo，lianjiecituozhanleshiwendeyiyikongjian，huozheshixiangshang“tisheng”，huozheshixiangnei“zongshen”。lingyizhonghuayubiaoshishicongyinyongshiwenyanshenchulaide“hexinci”，jiyinyongshiwenhuoqianhuohoudewenbenzhong，chuxianleyushiwenwanquanxiangtongdezici，zhezhonghexincizaiyinshixushisiweijinchengzhongdezuoyongyeshishuangzhongde，congyinyongshiwenlaishuo，hexincishishiwenbuzaishiwaizaiyuyinshixushi，ershizuoweiqisiweijinchengdeluojiqidian，rongruleyinshixushidesixiangshijie；hexincishixianqinruxuedesixiangshijie，bujinshiyizhongyilijiegou，yeyongyoushiwendejingdianliliang，bujinshiyizhonglixingyunsidesiweijincheng，yeshiyizhongfuyouqinggandeshengminghuodong。

yu《mengzi》xiangbi，《xunzi》yinshiduoda83tiao，yinyongshiwenjihudouzhiyuyinshixushidezuihou，caiqudedoushi“shiyue” “cizhiweiye”deyinshifangshi，zhezhongyinshifangshishixunziyinshixushidesiweijinchengchengxianchuyumengziwanquanbutongdetedian。qizhongzuiweituchudetedianyouliangge，diyi，congyinshixushidexingshijiegoulaishuo，yinyongshiwenyuqitabufendeguanxi，bushinazhongxiangshang“tisheng”huoxiangnei“zongshen”deluojiguanxi，ershiyizhongxiangduidulideguanxi，yeshiyizhongpingdengbingliedeguanxi。yi“cizhiweiye”jiewei，yinyongshiwendezuoyonggengweituchuhezhangxian，zheyuxunzidiyicimingquejie“shi”wei“jing”、shi“shi”wei“dao”shiyizhide，yuxunzizaixianqinruxueshixuechuantongyuhandairuxueshixuechuantongzhijianjuyuchengqianqihoudediweiyeshiyizhide。dier，congyinshixushideyilijiegoulaishuo，yinyongshiwensuiranchuyuyinshixushidezuihou，dantabingfeituolileyinshixushideqitabufen。jinyibushuo，yinshixushizhonggegebufenzhijiandeyili，shixianghufaming、xianghucanzhengdepingdengguanxi，meigebufendoushiduiyinshixushizhongruxueguanniandezhengcheng，“cizhiweiye”zhibuguoshiruxueguanniandelingyizhongbiaodafangshieryi。zhezhongyinshifangshiyuxunziruxuedeguifanxing、zhixuxingdesixiangtedian“ruohefujie”。

kongziyun：“yuyuhuwenzai！wucongzhou。”xianqinruxueduizhouwentuichongbeizhi，bujinzaiyutamenshiduizhouwendechuangzaoxingzhuanhua，yezaiyuzhourende“shi”“shu”“li”“le”dengyunyupeiyanglexianqinruxuedewentiyishi。wuyi，chunqiuzhongwanqi，“shi”zaizhourenzhengzhihuodongzhongdediweiyuzuoyongrijiantisheng，yu“lihuailebeng”riyijiajuqiaqiaxingchengyizhongduiyingguanxi，zheweixianqinruxuecong“shi”zhongjiqusixiangyingyangtigongleyizhongxingshishangdezhunbei。“shi”zhongchengzaidegudianshenghuojingyan、shengxianxingyiyushiji，weixianqinruxuetigonglesixiangyuanquan；“shi”zhongchengxiande“ren”“yi”“dao”“de”“li”“le”“xin”“junzi”dengguannian，zeweixianqinruxue“zhexuedetupo”tigonglefengfudesixiangziyuan。xianqinruxuesuowei“zhexuedetupo”，shiduizhexie“benyuanwenti”deliluntisheng，shiduigudianshenghuo、shengxiandianfandezhongxinchanshi，shiduizhexieguannianxingtaidesixiangchuangzao。zheyeshixianqinruxuedalianglunshiyinshi，xingchenglelianmianbuduandexianqinruxueshixuechuantongdeyuanyinsuozai。

“shi”bujinyunyulexianqinruxuedewentiyishi，yinshiyegouzaolexianqinruxuedesixiangqingjing。zhezhongsixiangqingjingdeshejiqimayoulianggejibenyaoqiu，jiduilianggezhuyaowentidechuli，diyi，yinyongshiwenyuqitabufendeguanxi；dier，yinyongshiwenyuruxueguanniandeguanxi。congyinshixushideneizaijiegoulaikan，dazhifenweisangebufen。diyibufenshiyinyongshiwen，yinyongshiwenjihumeiyouyinyongquanpiande，juedabufenshiyinyongmoupianmouzhangdemoujiju，congwenbenyilideluojiguanxikan，yinyongshiwendezuoyongyuyinshifangshizhijiexiangguan。yi“shiyun（yue）”kaishideyinshifangshi，shiwenyibanzuoweiyinfayilideluojiqidian；yi“cizhiweiye”jieweideyinshifangshi，shiwenyibanguijieyilidezuizhongjielun；yizhijierongrudeyinshifangshi，shiwenwangwangqidaochengqianqihoudezuoyong，zhebufenkejianchengwei“shi”。dierbufenshigudianshenghuoyushengxianxingyi，zhebufendadoushiyi“jingyanxing”demianmuchuxian，jikeyishiyisandaishengxiandexingyi、shijichuchangde“lishijingyan”，yekeyishi“shenghuojingyan”。congwenbenyilideluojiguanxilaikan，zhebufenyuyinyongshiwengongtonggouchengruxueguanniandeluojiqianti，qizhongdeyilihuozheyuyinyongshiwenxianghurongshe，huozheyuyinyongshiwenxianghuzhengcheng，zhebufenkejianchengwei“shi”。disanbufenshiruxueguannian，zhezhongruxueguannianbingfeichuncuidegainianhuofanchouxingshi，ershiyizhongjishuxinghuogushixingdeguannianxingtai。congwenbenyilideluojiguanxilaikan，zhebufenshiyinshixushidehexinhuojielun，zhebufenkejianchengwei“li”。ruguoshuoyinyongshiwenshixianqinruxuedejingdianliliang，namezhezhong“lishijingyan”huo“shenghuojingyan”，zeshixianqinruxueyuanshishengmingdedongliyuanquan，tuolizhezhongjingdianlilianghuoshengmingyuanquan，xianqinruxuededaodeguannianjiuhuiduoluoweichouxiangdegainiantuiyanheganbiededaodeshuojiao。guieryanzhi，“shi”“shi”“li”sangebufenshibukefenli、rongweiyitide。kejian，zhezhongyinshixushishixianqinruxuezhuzijingxinshejidejieguo，bingfeisuiyierwei。

zaixianqinruxuesixiangdeshengchengguochengzhong，“shi”yifeikeyoukewude，ershifahuilejingdianliliangdezhongyaozuoyong，zhezhongzuoyongkeyiconglianggebutongfangmianzhankai。yifangmianshicongyinshishiwenyiyidekaixianfangshilaishuo，kefenweishiwen“zhuanyishi”yu“shiyishi”。suowei“zhuanyishi”，shizhishiwenyiyizaixianqinruxuesixiangqingjing（yujing）zhongfashenglezhuanhua，yinyongshiwendeyiyiyushiwenyuanyiguanlianbuda，shenzhiwanquanwuguan，congshiyibianhuachengdulaishuo，zhezhong“zhuanyishi”keyishuoshi“benzhixing”“juliede”；suowei“shiyishi”，shizhiyinyongshiwendeyiyicongshiwenzhongyinchu，huozheshiduishiwenmougezicidejinyibuchanshi，huozheshimoujushiwendezhongxinchanshi，congshiyibianhuachengdulaishuo，zhezhong“shiyishi”keyishuoshi“jieshixing”“jianjinde”。lingyifangmianshicongxianqinruxuesixiangshijiedeshengchengfangshilaishuo，kefenwei“duanzhangquyi”yu“qingjingshengyi”。suowei“duanzhangquyi”，ruhe“duanzhang”shiqianti，jiruhexuanzeyinyongshiwendepianzhang。congxianqinruxueyinshixushizhong，jingchangkeyikandao，shiwendetongyipiantongyizhang，huotongyipianbutongzhang，zaibutongchubeiyinyong，shiyisuizhifashenglebianhua。ru《xunzi》yinshixushizhong，《daya·yi》beiyin6ci，fenbuzai《bugou》《feishierzi》《fuguo》《jundao》《chendao》《zhishi》zhong；《caofeng·鸤jiu》beiyin4ci，fenbuzai《quanxue》《fuguo》《yibing》《junzi》zhong。zheshuomingxianqinruxuezhuziduiyuruheyinshi，bingfeisuijixuanze，ershiyizhonglixingyunsidejieguo。suowei“qingjingshengyi”，shizhitongguosixiangqingjingdegouzaohesheji，yinyongshiwendeyiyisuizhifashengbianhua。zhezhong“qingjing”jibaokuoyinshizhedejiazhiquxiangyusixianglichang，yebaokuoyinshizhedeshenfen、xiuyang，haibaokuoyinshifashengdechanghe、beijingdeng。zaizhezhong“qingjing”zhong，yinshizhebuzaiyouyushiwenyuanyi，ershiyijusixiangqingjinghuowenbenyujing，zhongxinchanfashiwendeyiyi，youciyinfahuotuilunxianqinruxuedesixiangshijie。

zongshangsuoshu，“shi”zuoweiyizhongjingdianliliang，zaixianqinruxuezhongqizhejuzuqingzhongdezuoyong。jiuyinshixushilaishuo，tatuidongle“shi”zhezhongjingdiande“ruxuehua”yuxianqinruxue“jingdianhua”dejincheng。yinshixushishixianqinruxuedeyizhongjingdianxushiyuhuayufangshi，duiyuxianqinruxuedesixiangshijieyouzhefeichangzhongyaodesixiangjiazhi。yanjiuxianqinruxuedeyinshixushi，shihaiyuanxianqinruxuedeyuanshishengming、zhaoshixianqinruxuedeshixingzhihui、zhangxianxianqinruxuedezhongguozhexuetezhidezhongyaolujing。

《guangmingribao》（2023nian05yue22ri15ban）

　　(　)　(　)该(gai)机(ji)构(gou)指(zhi)出(chu)，(，)债(zhai)券(quan)融(rong)资(zi)不(bu)足(zu)去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)3(3)成(cheng)、(、)为(wei)社(she)融(rong)最(zui)大(da)拖(tuo)累(lei)项(xiang)，(，)表(biao)外(wai)票(piao)据(ju)等(deng)非(fei)标(biao)融(rong)资(zi)对(dui)社(she)融(rong)增(zeng)量(liang)贡(gong)献(xian)较(jiao)大(da)。(。)分(fen)项(xiang)中(zhong)，(，)政(zheng)府(fu)债(zhai)券(quan)融(rong)资(zi)3(3)0(0)0(0)0(0)亿(yi)元(yuan)出(chu)头(tou)、(、)同(tong)比(bi)大(da)幅(fu)少(shao)减(jian)近(jin)6(6)7(7)0(0)0(0)亿(yi)元(yuan)，(，)企(qi)业(ye)债(zhai)券(quan)也(ye)明(ming)显(xian)走(zou)弱(ruo)、(、)8(8)月(yue)新(xin)增(zeng)不(bu)足(zu)1(1)2(2)0(0)0(0)亿(yi)元(yuan)、(、)去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)为(wei)4(4)6(6)0(0)0(0)亿(yi)元(yuan)以(yi)上(shang)；(；)人(ren)民(min)币(bi)贷(dai)款(kuan)新(xin)增(zeng)1(1).(.)3(3)万(wan)亿(yi)元(yuan)、(、)同(tong)比(bi)大(da)体(ti)持(chi)平(ping)，(，)委(wei)托(tuo)、(、)表(biao)外(wai)票(piao)据(ju)等(deng)非(fei)标(biao)融(rong)资(zi)明(ming)显(xian)增(zeng)多(duo)，(，)股(gu)票(piao)融(rong)资(zi)同(tong)比(bi)变(bian)化(hua)不(bu)大(da)。(。)

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